“It’s the Hottest NFL Week 15 Day Player Prop Bets And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
It’s Week 15 in the NFL! The playoffs creep closer and closer! We went 2-2 last week and are looking to get back to the winning side this week. Ironically, part of it was we expected a Kirk Cousins revenge angle. Silly me, I should have thought about the fact that Kirk Cousins is too nice to want to take revenge. We’re back to the drawing board though with our best NFL Week 15 offensive player props!
Odds Recorded On 12/13/2024 Via DraftKings
Brian Robinson Over 76.5 Rushing Yards @ -125 (Commanders)
This week we’ll start with a stud that is coming off a bye week in Brian Robinson. His rushing total is currently set at 76.5 rushing yards. This probably seems high for a guy who’s only gone over this mark three times this year. However, I’m not concerned. The Commanders should not only be able to win this game easily, meaning they’ll be ahead and have more reason to run the clock out. However, they should also have an easy time running the ball.
The Saints are currently the 25th team in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs. Not great for a team that’s getting ready to play a smash-mouth back like Robinson. The Saints have allowed over 135 rushing yards in their last four games. They’ve also allowed four rushing touchdowns in the last four games. Their defense has struggled, especially as of late.
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The Commanders are currently in prime position to make the playoffs. However, they need to keep winning in order to ensure they make the playoffs. The Saints are potentially starting Jake Haener, with Derek Carr injured, and watching their small playoff chances slip away. This one could get ugly and the game getting ugly will only benefit Brian Robinson. This is one of my favorites on my NFL Week 15 props list.
Chuba Hubbard Over 81.5 Rushing Yards @ -115 (Panthers)
Last week I was fading Chuba Hubbard everywhere I could. I faded him in bets, I faded him in fantasy football, I faded him everywhere I could. The reason for that is because of Jonathan Brooks. Brooks had been taking touches away as he slowly got ramped back up from his ACL injury.
If you live under a rock and haven’t heard the unfortunate news, Jonathan Brooks re-tore his ACL. Therefore, Hubbard will be back to having the bulk of the carries. Luckily for Hubbard, in his first game back in the saddle as the only running back who will likely get more than five carries, he faces the Cowboys.
The Cowboys’ rush defense has been one of the worst in the league this year. They’re currently 30th in rushing yards allowed. They did a good job last week limiting Chase Brown to 58 rushing yards. Although, part of that was the fact that the Bengals were passing the ball so well.
As bad as the Cowboys’ defense has been, they haven’t allowed a rusher to exceed 81.5 rushing yards since Week 11 when Joe Mixon did it. However, I think they’re due to allow a big rushing game and the Panthers have been pretty decent rushing the ball as of late. Am I slightly nervous nobody has done it since Mixon in Week 11? Maybe a little. However, I think the Panthers have played so well that they keep it close relying on the ground. It’s one of the NFL Week 15 props on my list that I’m sticking to.
Bo Nix Over 237.5 Passing Yards @ -115 (Broncos)
For this best bet on the NFL Week 15 props list I have to ask. Do you Bo-Lieve? I’ve become a Bo-Liever in Bo Nix. What this rookie has accomplished has been nothing short of awesome to watch. Yes, Jayden Daniels will likely win Offensive Rookie Of The Year. However, everybody thought Jayden Daniels would be good. I don’t think anybody expected this out of Bo Nix.
Nix, with the Broncos in position to make the playoffs, goes against the Colts. The Colts’ defense has allowed the 27th most passing yards in the league, which should set Nix up for a nice day. The Colts had a bye week last week. However, the week before they played the Patriots and let Drake Maye throw for 238 yards.
I mean this is no offense to Maye, but Drake Maye is not Bo Nix. Goff threw for 269 against them in Week 12. Josh Allen went for 280 in Week 10 and Sam Darnold in Week 9. All this leads up to Bo Nix having a big day. He’s thrown for over 237.5 passing yards in the last three weeks. The last three weeks he’s thrown for 307, 273, and 294 yards. Yes, I am a Bo-Liever.
Najee Harris Under 55.5 Yards @ -120 (Steelers)
Last week I took a stab at a Najee Harris prop bet by taking his receiving yards. It felt like a good angle. He thanked us by having zero receiving yards, after exceeding his total two weeks in a row. Thanks, Najee. That’s not the reason we’re fading him but it’s a fun narrative to follow.
Harris’ rushing total is set at 55.5 rushing yards. He’s only hit over this number twice in the last five games. His rushing yards have dwindled slightly ever since Jaylen Warren became healthier and started taking some carries from him. Hitting under this three times in the last five games is becoming a pattern.
On top of not hitting over this number 50% or more of the time in the last five games, now he goes against one of the top rushing defenses. The Eagles are 9th in the league in rushing yards allowed. They did let Chuba Hubbard run for 92 yards last week. However, that was on 26 carries. Harris has only had over 20 carries twice this year.
This will be a real test for both teams and a great matchup. There are a couple of NFL week 15 props that I like in this game alone, including Saquon Barkley’s over. However, targeting Najee’s under rushing yards is one of my favorites.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1098
Brian Robinson Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Chuba Hubbard Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bo Nix Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Najee Harris Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
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