All NFL Game Prop Picks for the Week 15 bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 12/11/2024.
Greetings and welcome to the Week 15 NFL Props, Bests Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
Last week was a total bust with my first 0-3 result in this article series for the season. The podcast wasn’t much better at just 4-7 overall. It was pretty brutal all around there’s no doubt about it. Big picture, we’ve still had only had a handful of losing weeks this season, so it is what it is. I’ll try some safer options this week to get back on track. Once again this is why the disclaimers are everywhere and why I hope you use this article and the accompanying podcast as “idea generators” and not just something to blindly tail. Hopefully, Week 15 treats us better!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions; they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper.” Set a limit and stick to it. For help with problem gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hot Week 15 Sunday Prop Picks And Best Bets!
The bet: Chubba Hubbard over 82.5 rushing yards, -115
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier): Use an alt line to increase the rushing yards total or parlay (round robin) with other likely results to increase the price.
The rationale: Hubbard has cleared this line in 6 games already this season and is in prime position to do so again this week. Carolina has been playing much better recently. They’ve hung with the Chiefs and Eagles and scared the living crap out of both in the past month. The return of Adam Thielen has given their passing attack a boost and this in turn has resulted in fewer loaded boxes for Hubbard to contend with. As a team, Carolina is averaging roughly 25 rushing attempts per game and the majority of those are going to Hubbard. Particularly so now that Jonathon Brooks is back on IR. This backfield is Hubbard’s and his alone once more.
The Dallas rush defense keeps taking hits
This week Hubbard and the Panthers get an atrocious Dallas rushing defense that we’ve been picking on all season long. They allow 141.9 yards per game on the ground. That is the third worst across the league. Injuries and a drastic change at defensive coordinator have spelled doom for the historically (but no longer) vaunted Dallas defense. They’re still missing key pieces on the defensive line such as DeMarcus Lawrence and others. And now they’ve added DeMarvion Overshown to the list of casualties as he heads to IR. Overshown, the second starting inside linebacker for Dallas, will miss the remainder of the season. His 62.1 PFF grade will be sorely missed as this key piece of an already shredded defense departs until next season at the minimum.
The Cowboys aren’t going anywhere this season
Beyond that, Dallas has been better recently but is still essentially a one-dimensional offense. They are ranked as the 5th worst rushing attack now and that in turn hurts their 4th worst in the league time of possession ranking. They have trouble sustaining drives and are still rolling out a backup quarterback. The opportunities for Carolina to hang in this game, keep it somewhat close, and ensure that Hubbard remains a key piece of the offensive game plan are there for us this week. Carolina is actually favored by a field goal now and even Vegas thinks this will be a close game. That’s exactly what we want. If Dallas pulls way out in front then Carolina would become one-dimensional as they try to “pass their way back” into the game. That doesn’t look likely this week.
It’s a pretty good setup!
So we’ve got a running back that’s no longer splitting touches (Hubbard), is up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, and Vegas thinks it will be a close game. That’s about as good a setup as we can get around these parts. Let’s hope it pays off and Hubbard is in store for another big game in Week 15.
The bet: Anthony Richardson under 187.5 passing yards, -115
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier): Parlay (round robin) with other likely results to increase the price.
The rationale: Not only has Richardson been under this number 6 times already this season but he averages about 167 yards per game through the air any given week. His normal average is 20 yards under where this over/under is, that’s a great start. Beyond that, he only completes about 11.3 passes per game. Richardson just isn’t a gunslinger. He uses his legs and Indianapolis as a team tends to focus on the run game. Even if this were a normal matchup there’s already a good chance he’d be under this number to start with. And this week the Colts have anything but a “normal” matchup.
This Denver defense has been excellent all season long
They’re going to Denver, which is already a huge disadvantage with the altitude difference, and playing against one of the best defenses in the league in their house. Denver is the 8th best total team defense, yards allowed per game. They’re also the second-best defense in terms of points per game allowed. The Broncos are a top-ten rush defense and within the top third of the league for pass defense. Their turnover differential is positive three even with a rookie quarterback under center who spent the first month of the season throwing to the wrong team. They also sack the quarterback the most across the entire league. They have 47 teams sacks so far and have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses with their ridiculously good pass rush. Their secondary is also one of, if not THE, best in the league.
Disaster looms for Richardson and Indy this week
This is one of the best defenses in the league. They’re at home and need this win to stay in the wildcard race. Their secondary is loaded with playmakers and their defensive line applies so much pressure that opposing quarterbacks crumble to pieces against them. They are a top-ten team for interceptions for this season. They are the best team in the league for interception returns for touchdowns. This defense is so good that the Denver offense is essentially just “don’t make any mistakes” and the defense will win the game for them. This is a total mismatch and, especially if Indy gets into a negative gamescript, this has disaster for Richardson and the Colts written all over it. We’ll lean into that likelihood with this bet and hope the football Gods bring it to fruition for us!
The bet: James Conner over 70.5 rushing yards, -115
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier): Parlay (round robin) with other likely results to increase the price.
The rationale: Conner has cleared this line in 6 games already this season and is in a great spot to do so again this week against a New England team that had a decent defense but will ultimately crumble under the pressure this Cardinals team will apply. Arizona needs this game in the worst way possible. With Arizona losing three in a row after winning four in a row prior to that the Cardinals need to show up this week or it’s all over for them. Thankfully for them, they get a Patriots team that has been plucky, but not very good, most weeks this season.
This isn’t a Belichick defense anymore
Defensively, New England is within the worst third of the league for rushing defense. They’re missing key pieces such as Ja’Whaun Bentley, their starting inside linebacker and captain of the defense. Both starting safeties are questionable this week and their defensive line finally returned starters such as Christian Barmore just recently. This defense hasn’t been complete and able to play together as a unit in any game this season I can think of. They’re not playing for anything, just draft position, and while they’ve been competitive their defense as a whole has sprung some leaks. They’ve allowed 87 points in the last three games, long gone are the days of surprising Cincy and huge upset wins.
With enough pounding, the dam will break
Beyond the injuries and questions about what they have to play for, I’m more interested in the Arizona approach to this game. We’ve seen them favor the run game all season long with occasional play-action deep shots and the always consistent targets to McBride over the middle. If they’re anything it’s consistent. We know we’ll get about 16 rushing attempts for Conner any given week, more in a favorable game script against a team that doesn’t immediately put Arizona behind the 8-ball on the scoreboard. I don’t think we need to worry about that with this New England offense that’s only scoring 17 points per game, second worst across the league.
The setup looks good for Conner to have a good shot at this
And that’s all we need, for it to be close enough that Conner gets his carries, the rest should take care of itself. It may not be a quick prop, this may cash late as Arizona is salting the clock away, but I am confident that at the minimum Conner will get enough opportunities to make this happen in Week 15 and that’s all we can ask for.
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Good luck this week and thanks for reading!
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