“It’s the Hottest NFL Divisional Round Playoff Player Props And Parlay Picks With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
Odds Recorded On 1/17/2025 Via DraftKings
C.J. Stroud Over 227.5 Receptions @ -113 (Texans)
We’ll start game by game in our NFL divisional-round playoff props. The first game is the Texans vs. the Chiefs. This is actually the hardest game in the divisional-round playoffs for me to pick. I have a feeling it’s going to be a lot closer than a lot of people think and come down to the wire.
The Chiefs may seem like a team of destiny, chasing their three-pete. However, that’s exactly what makes them vulnerable. There’s so much pressure on them to win each game, while the Texans still have a young team that is building momentum. These teams faced off against each other on 12/21, with the Chiefs winning 27-19. It was in Kansas City, so the Texans catching +8.5 is interesting.
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However, we’re here to talk props. As I said, it was hard finding a prop I really liked in this game, especially among the receivers and rushers. I settled on C.J. Stroud over 227.5 passing yards. I think this will be a close game but I do believe the Chiefs will lead most of the time. That will require the Texans to throw the ball.
Kansas City has a really stout defense, but they allow the 17th most passing yards. In fact, less than a month ago they let Stroud throw for 244 passing yards. Therefore with a win-or-go-home game, I think the Texans will be able to move the ball the same as they did in the December game.
Austin Ekeler 48.5 Rush+Receiving Yards @ -114 (Commanders)
The second game in our NFL divisional-round playoff props is the Commanders and the Lions. The Commanders surprised some with rookie Jayden Daniels leading them to a victory over Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. The Lions are well-rested after their first-round bye and will be ready to prove they belong in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders for the second year in a row.
This should be a really fascinating game to watch as both teams have been able to move the ball down the field all year. Which team will be able to take advantage of the other’s defense? I do think on paper, the Detroit Lions are the better team here. This means they’ll likely have a lead for most of the game.
When the Commanders are trailing, they tend to utilize Austin Ekeler a lot. He’s not only a veteran running back but he’s good at catching passes out of the backfield. I love his stat projected line of over 48.5 rushing and receiving yards. While Detroit has a stifling defense against the run, they are 22nd in receiving yards allowed to running backs. This is where Ekeler will do most of his damage.
Ekeler has gone over this number in five of the last seven games he’s played. He is coming off a 53-yard performance against the Bucs. He also recently had 96 total yards against Philadelphia. Ekeler is going to be utilized for his pass-catching abilities as well as his veteran leadership when the game is on the line.
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Catches @ +100 (Rams)
The third NFL divisional-round playoff props game is the Rams vs. the Eagles. While I think the Eagles are going to win this game we have to be honest with ourselves. Puka poses a real problem for the Eagles’ defense out of the slot. Their defense has been really good, especially in the secondary. However, they have struggled against speedy receivers like Puka.
When the game is on the line it no longer seems like Matt Stafford is relying on Cooper Kupp. Instead, he relies on Puka Nacua. Puka is averaging seven catches a game. However, in the last seven games that number bumps up to eight. I went back seven games because that’s the last time Puka matched up against these Eagles.
In that game, he was targeted 13 times and caught nine of those for 117 yards. You may feel more comfortable taking Puka Nacua over 87.5 receiving yards. I fully support that. However, I wanted to add a little juice to this parlay, and over 7.5 catches is at +100. For a star who seems un-coverable, even against the best of defenses, I feel good that he’ll be heavily targeted again.
For an extra bet, the Rams really got after the quarterback last week. Sam Darnold is not a mobile quarterback. Jalen Hurts IS a mobile quarterback. I’m smashing Jalen Hurts over rushing yards.
Josh Allen Over 235.5 Passing Yards @ -114 (Bills)
The last NFL divisional-round playoff props game to look at is the Ravens vs. the Bills. This may be the game of the weekend as the debate rolls on about which quarterback should be the MVP this year. Which quarterback will finally continue and not choke in the playoffs? For me, the answer is Josh Allen.
The Rams defense is currently 31st in passing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Allen is averaging exactly 235.5 passing yards a game this season. That includes games against tougher defenses. Therefore, going against a defense that has struggled against the pass, I think he is able to dice them up through the air.
It’s interesting, all the talk about the Bills maybe slipping back after getting rid of Diggs this offseason. It has seemed the opposite though. Allen has been able to do more with less, which is one of the reasons I think he should be named NFL MVP. Allen is going to put this team on his back through the air and with his legs.
Last week against Denver he threw for 272 passing yards. In other games against playoff teams, he’s put up 362 yards (Detroit), 342 yards (Rams), and 262 yards (Chiefs). These two did face each other back in September. In that game, Allen only threw for 180 yards and they lost 35-10. I don’t expect that performance to repeat as the Bills have become a more solid team as the year has gone on.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1228
CJ Stroud Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Austin Ekeler Over 48.5 Rush+Receiving Yards (-114)
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (+100)
Josh Allen Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114)
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
Don’t forget to check out our other great Fantasy Football and NFL Betting content before you go! Thanks for reading my NFL Divisional-Round Offense Player Playoff Props article!