The Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl Champions and betting line favorite. However, here are a few under-the-radar thoughts on why you should not sleep on the Houston Texans.
The Kansas City Chiefs will aim to defend their Super Bowl crown by fending off the scrappy Houston Texans on Saturday 1.18.2025 at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM EST for this AFC divisional round matchup. The Houston Texans earned a spot in this playoff round by knocking off the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12. The Chiefs are coming off a first-round bye. Houston (10-7), are AFC South divisional winners. They are 5-4 on the road this NFL season. Kansas City (15-2), have won their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. For the 2024 season, they have yet to lose a game on their home field.
KC are heavy 8.5 favorites for this contest. However, here are three Houston Texans bets you should consider.
First Half Houston Texans +6.5
Keep an eye out on how the betting public will continue to drive up Kansas City Chiefs odds. Should this happen I am seeing some interesting plays on the Houston Texans. As of now, I see opportunities to lock in a first half bet on the Houston Texans at +6.5.
The Texans are a live play! The team is well coached and starting QB C.J. Stroud is in his second year with playoff experience. In looking back at December 21, 2024 HOUVsKC matchup, Houston played Kansas City hard. They carried a 10-7 lead well into the 2nd quarter. Kareem Hunt had a 3 yard touchdown run with 4:38 to go in the 2nd quarter and Harrison Butker had to boot a 44 yard field goal with 0:24 seconds to go in the half.
Right now Houston is entering this contest in rhythm and with a carefree spirit. They are HOT while KC is coming of an extended bye. Bank on the Chiefs needing a few series to find an offensive groove. In the meantime, take the Houston Texans in the 1st half getting +6.5 points.
Joe Mixon OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards
Rex Ryan said the Chargers have a “bye week” facing the Texans.
Joe Mixon is celebrating that now: pic.twitter.com/YsTPkjB1ev
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 12, 2025
I do like the Houston Texans to be a competitive underdog in this game. Should this be true, you must believe that an aspect of ball control will be at the top of mind for coach DeMeco Ryans. Combine this with the fact that RB Joe Mixon is a flat out DOG has me locked in on a Joe Mixon OVER 56.5 rushing yards play.
Joe Mixion had a TD as well as 106 rushing yards in last weeks divisional round against the Chargers. Look at the chip he carried on his shoulder when coach Rex Ryan made the “bye week” comment. Name the expert picking the Texans to WIN this game. Go ahead and make the mistake on Mr. Mixion is not going to use this as a motivational incentive. For such reasons I am locking in on OVER bets on Joe Mixion rushing yard totals.
Ka’imi Fairbairn UNDER 2 Made Field Goals
The key here is 2. We are not making this bet at 1 or 1.5 field goals made. For this game we are looking at cloudy skies and temperatures in the teens. These are not ideal kicking conditions! You also need to think that the Texans will enter into this game with an aggressive mindset. They will need to score points in order in quantities of 6 not 3.
For such reasons I expect them to pass up fourth down field goal attempts for opportunities that allow for more points.
Thank you for reading my 2025 AFC Houston Texans Vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL playoff article. You can read more of my sports betting content on my IDP+ Author page. After that, feel free to connect with me on Twitter @MarcSaulino and follow @IDP_Plus to stay informed about everything NFL-relevant by becoming a member.