Playoffs?!!? You kidding me??? Playoffs!??! Yes, Coach Mora, the playoffs are here! And you are in them (I hope)! Time to buckle down and win a chip (or stay out of the toilet!)
Somehow we are in the playoffs for a vast majority of leagues. This year and season have gone incredibly fast, with so much happening! Thankfully we have a full slate of games to choose from, which can help mitigate bad matchups and injuries. We also are here for those who have had bad luck and are trying to find pieces to get out of the toilet bowl and avoid a last-place punishment! With us being in the postseason, the format of this article will change slightly…
Instead of the Start, Sit, Start format, we are moving to Rise, Lower, and Shot. Most playoff teams are not dragging the lake for a wire superstar, so we will focus on the upper-echelon players. Rise will be an upper-tier player who has a good chance to outproduce their good expectations. Lower will be an upper-tier player who is hard to bench, but is a name to consider benching or preparing for lesser performances. These can be based off of injury, statistical regression, poor matchups, etc. Finally, Shots will stay true to a point of this article, where a lower-level player has a great matchup or increase in usage or metrics that could see them blow up. Hopefully, you do not need these players, but injuries happen!
Disclaimers! In this series I will be basing picks off of a balanced scoring system (like the IDP+ Invitational, which also boosts DTs and CBs to even their production out), to cover as many bases as possible! Please also note that mentions of previous finishes/points allowed come from the IDP+ data suite. If you have a more complex league scoring system, these suggestions may serve as a baseline. For a more degenerate breakdown, jump into Discord and chat with our stellar team! Now that the intro is done, let’s introduce the week 15 start-sit options!
Raise a tier: DT Quinnen Williams, New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes, Williams has struggled lately. Yes, the Jags have been a bottom-8 matchup in the past 4 weeks. Do we care? Yes, but not really. Looking at the metrics (PRR and PRWR from PFF, specifically), he has still been an elite rusher. Only 2 DTs have been better in both metrics over the past 4 weeks, and both are rotational pieces. Williams’ cold stretch is largely a matchup issue, with both Seattle and Miami being bottom-8 ones in the same span. It is the playoffs, don’t get cute. There is always risk, but there is no worse feeling than benching your superstar in the playoffs when he goes off. Williams has sacked Jags QB Mac Jones twice in his career (5 games), and that was against a Jones who was much better than this version on this Jags team.
Last week: Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Las Vegas Raiders. Finished with 15.5 points (IDPI scoring). 1 solo and assisted tackles while adding 3 QB hits. Was not quite able to finish on a metric-heavy game, but still was a high-end DT2.
Thank you all for taking the time and trust to read my start-sit article! I am honored and excited to go through this exercise each week and hope that I am able to help y’all win some matchups. I will not be perfect, but promise to give this my best each week and give well-thought and backed information. Feel free to reach out to chat with me about this (or anything else!) in discord or on X, where you can find me @JoeLow63. Please also check out my podcast, Ride or Dynasty (@RideorDynasty on X) with myself, Jameson Hutchison (@Jamesonrulez) and host JJ Wenner (@JJWenner) LIVE on X each Thursday at 6EST/4MT and in your podcast feeds Friday mornings! Check out more at IDP+!
