Three hundred and eighty-three passing yards. Seventeen catches for Puka Nacua. Aaron Donald pounced on a fumble at his own 20 in overtime. And still the Los Angeles Rams trudged off at SoFi Stadium on Monday night as 37-34 losers, beaten by the brilliance of Josh Allen, who dragged his Buffalo Bills kicking and screaming to a fourth win of the season.
ICE IN HIS VEINS TYLER BASS WINS IT IN OT!
Josh Allen gets his first overtime win! pic.twitter.com/i73npqHSy8
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) October 13, 2026
This wasn’t the script. Matthew Stafford arrived as the reigning MVP after a January run that featured Harrison Mevis’s 42-yard overtime winner in Chicago, before a 31-27 NFC Championship Game defeat in Seattle. Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie were acquired, Donald came out of retirement, and online betting sites promptly installed the Rams as the overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Rams Early Season Woes
Popular websites accepting sports bets online listed the Rams as a clear +500 frontrunner to lift the Lombardi next February, with no one else in the league shorter than +1000. They were also a -115 favorite to win the division. Then came four games in four different time zones, a Melbourne thumping, a collapse in Denver, and a late escape in Philadelphia.
Monday was billed as a meeting of the top two Super Bowl favorites, only the second Monday Night Football game started by the two most recent MVPs, with the Rams 2.5-point favorites and -150 on the moneyline. Mevis missed from 50 yards in the first quarter, then had a 48-yard overtime attempt blocked by Greg Rousseau before Tyler Bass won it from 45.
Sean McVay called the kicking “not even close to good enough” and promised to “evaluate everything.” At 2-3, the favorites are chasing, and the market has moved. Here is the new hierarchy in the NFC West, arguably the NFL’s most stacked division right now.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco opened at +340 to win the division after a 41-6 divisional-round thrashing in Seattle ended last season. Raheem Morris duly took over the defense once Robert Saleh left to coach Tennessee. Five weeks later, they’re the division’s only unbeaten team and 3-0 inside it.
A 27-7 rout of the Rams in Melbourne was followed by wins over Miami (35-13), Arizona (36-30), and Denver (24-14), then Sunday’s 32-29 victory at Lumen Field, where Brock Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives and Eddy Pineiro’s field goal with 1:56 left settled it. Renardo Green intercepted Sam Darnold twice in a four-takeaway afternoon; Mike Evans caught seven passes for 113 yards. Purdy now has 13 touchdown passes against two interceptions and is leading the MVP conversation.
But the worries are real. Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson are all on injured reserve; Evans and Trent Williams were both knocked out of the Arizona game, and Pineiro missed two extra points that day. Washington and Atlanta come before the Week 8 bye; the run-in is a gauntlet, though, featuring Seattle, the Rams, the Chargers, Kansas City and Philadelphia. Healthy, this is a genuine Super Bowl threat.
Los Angeles Rams
Let’s be honest about the Rams: five games, three losses, each finding a new way to happen. They flew into Melbourne a day before kick-off and lost 27-7 in their opener, with Garrett held without a tackle before knee surgery sent him to injured reserve. Stafford threw four touchdowns in a 28-6 win over the Giants on the night Donald returned. Then the sports car stalled in Denver, where a 16-0 half-time lead became a 30-26 defeat. Kyren Williams’s two late touchdowns rescued a 24-20 win in Philadelphia before Monday’s heartbreak.
The defense, anchored by McDuffie, entered Week 5 second in yards allowed. Special teams are another matter entirely. How long can a Super Bowl favorite keep losing games its kicker should win?
Garrett is eligible to return against Arizona on Sunday, and the Raiders, Chargers, Washington, and a second Arizona date follow before the Week 14 trip to Santa Clara and two Seattle games in the final three weeks. Three games back and 0-1 in the division, they need to win at Levi’s Stadium and hope San Francisco slips.
Their divisional odds drifted from +315 to +425 after Monday. This roster can still go deep in January, provided that they stop finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Seattle Seahawks
What do defending champions do when the market shrugs? Seattle went 14-3, beat the 49ers and Rams in the playoffs and the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, yet the bookies opened them at +220 after offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to coach Las Vegas and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III joined Kansas City.
Darnold hurt his glute five plays into a 13-10 opening win over New England, and Drew Lock stepped in to throw three touchdowns to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a 31-7 win in Arizona. Darnold’s return in Washington brought a career-high 379 yards and four touchdowns, then a Kain Medrano pick-six in a 33-31 defeat. A 30-23 win over the Chargers preceded Sunday’s home loss to San Francisco.
Reigning offensive player of the year Smith-Njigba already has seven touchdown catches, but the ground game sputters, and rookie Jadarian Price lost a fumble in Washington before landing on injured reserve. Denver comes on a short week, then prime-time dates with Kansas City and Chicago, a trip to Philadelphia and the Rams twice in the final three weeks.
Seattle must win in Santa Clara in Week 12 and sweep Los Angeles. If they do that, another deep run is plausible, as is the NFC West title at odds of +400.
Arizona Cardinals
Spare a thought for the rebuilding Arizona Cardinals in this murderer’s row of a division. Mike LaFleur’s first game in charge brought a 26-14 upset of the Chargers. It’s been downhill since: losses to Seattle, San Francisco, the Giants, and, 45-21, Detroit, with a defense conceding more than 32 points a game and Jacoby Brissett throwing three interceptions in the Big Apple.
No. 3 pick Jeremiyah Love has flashed, but this is a rebuilding year, and the Rams are next. They’re +10000 afterthoughts for a reason.
