Find success in Week 1 with these start/sit decisions for the Offensive side of the ball!
NFL Week 1 is finally here! It is now time to bear the fruit of all your research and draft day preparations. Instead of being guided by a players’ season-long projections, we must now turn to the weekly matchups that are laid before us. The real fun (and stress) begins as we make the critical lineup decisions for optimal output.
In this article, I will reveal the roadmap to fantasy success for every matchup on the NFL Week 1 slate. I will use a system of “Trust, If You Must, and Bust” to express strong, weak, and avoidable starting lineup decisions.
The “Trust, If You Must, and Bust” System:
“Trust” = Strong start, a player who should be started in all formats!
“If You Must” = Weak start, a player who is good enough to be a starter, but faces a tough matchup or holds an unclear opportunity in a good offense. Some caution should be used while the risk is recognized, as this is often league format dependent.
If you play in a shallow league, I would lean towards benching this player if you have a decent replacement option. In a deep league, I would lean towards starting, since the options may be more scarce. Either way, expectations should be managed.
“Bust” = Keep on your bench, at least for now. These players should be avoided since stronger options at the relative position should be considered first. These are players who fit into one of the following categories:
- A player in a tough matchup or currently holds ambiguous weekly opportunities in the offense.
- A strong bench stash for season-long purposes but currently in a “wait and see” period. Wait and see if their role expands for starter caliber consideration. For example, this type of player may be a strong backup RB behind a stud in an elite offense or could be in line for a big workload if the starter misses time.
- Currently lacking a clear offensive opportunity in either a projected good or bad offense
- Is too volatile on a week-to-week basis. There is no need to play boom or bust type players if you can help it.
Weekly Start/Sit Decision Reminders
Be sure to always be mindful of weekly injury reports and gameday inactive announcements as this could pivot a weak starter into a strong starter!
For example, RB Saquon Barkley. Backup RB Devontae Booker gets starter consideration if Barkley is ruled out late Sunday morning before kick-off. If Barkley is ruled out, Booker would fit into the “If You Must” category due to the enhanced opportunity, but may be lacking in quality relative to other roster options.
Be sure to always leave the FLEX spot(s) free of Thursday night players!
The Week 1 Slate
Week 1 start/sit decisions typically aren’t too difficult since we can justify our draft day results as the basis for setting the lineup. Although, what may seem like an automatic decision based on your draft sometimes requires some deeper consideration…
Thursday Night Football Season Opener
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cowboys
Trust – QB Dak Prescott, WR Amari Cooper, WR CeeDee Lamb
If You Must – RB Ezekiel Elliott
Bust – WR Michael Gallup, TE Blake Jarwin
Buccaneers
Trust – QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin
If You Must – WR Antonio Brown
Bust – RB Ronald Jones, RB Leonard Fournette, TE Rob Gronkowski
Sunday Early Afternoon slate
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
Eagles
Trust – QB Jalen Hurts, RB Miles Sanders, WR DeVonta Smith
If You Must – TE Dallas Goedert,
Bust – WR Jalen Reagor, TE Zach Ertz
Falcons
Trust – QB Matt Ryan, WR Calvin Ridley, TE Kyle Pitts
If You Must – RB Mike Davis, WR Russell Gage
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Steelers
Trust – RB Najee Harris, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Chase Claypool
If You Must – WR Juju Smith-Schuster
Bust – TE Eric Ebron
Bills
Trust – QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs
Bust – RB Zack Moss, RB Devin Singletary, WR Gabriel Davis, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
Vikings
Trust – RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Adam Thielen
If You Must – QB Kirk Cousins
Bust – TE Tyler Conklin, TE Chris Herndon
Bengals
Trust – QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd
If You Must – RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
49ers
Trust – TE George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel
If You Must – RB Raheem Mostert
Bust – RB Trey Sermon
Lions
Trust – TE TJ Hockenson, RB D’Andre Swift
Bust – QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Tyrell Williams
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
Cardinals
Trust – QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Chase Edmonds
Bust – RB James Conner, WR Rondale Moore, WR Christian Kirk
Titans
Trust – QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR AJ Brown, WR Julio Jones
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Seahawks
Trust – QB Russell Wilson, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, RB Chris Carson
Bust – TE Gerald Everett
Colts
Trust – RB Jonathon Taylor
If You Must – QB Carson Wentz, WR Michael Pittman
Bust – RB Nyheim Hines, WR Parris Campbell
Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
Chargers
Trust – RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen
If You Must – QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams
Football Team
Trust – RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas
If You Must – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Bust – WR Curtis Samuel, RB J.D. McKissic
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Jets
Trust – WR Corey Davis
If You Must – QB Zach Wilson, TE Tyler Kroft
Bust – RB Michael Carter, RB Tevin Coleman, RB Ty Johnson, WR Elijah Moore
Panthers
Trust – RB Christian McCaffrey, WR DJ Moore, WR Robby Anderson
If You Must – QB Sam Darnold
Bust – WR Terrace Marshall
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Jaguars
Trust – RB James Robinson
If You Must – QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Lavishka Shenault, WR DJ Chark, WR Marvin Jones
Texans
Trust – WR Brandin Cooks
If You Must – QB Tyrod Taylor
Bust – RB David Johnson, RB Phillip Lindsay, RB Mark Ingram
Sunday Mid Afternoon Slate
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Browns
Trust – RB Nick Chubb, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Odell Beckham Jr.
If You Must – WR Jarvis Landry, QB Baker Mayfield
Bust – TE Austin Hooper
Chiefs
Trust – QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Bust – WR Mecole Hardman
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Dolphins
Trust – RB Myles Gaskin, TE Mike Gesicki
If You Must – QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR DeVante Parker
Patriots
Trust – RB Damien Harris, TE Jonnu Smith
If You Must – WR Jakobi Meyers, TE Hunter Henry
Bust – WR Nelson Agholor
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville)
Packers
Trust – QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, RB Aaron Jones,
If You Must – TE Robert Tonyan
Bust – RB AJ Dillon, WR Randall Cobb
Saints
Trust – RB Alvin Kamara
If You Must – QB Jameis Winston, WR Marquez Callaway
Bust – TE Adam Trautman
Denver Broncos at New York Giants
Broncos
Trust – WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Noah Fant
If You Must – WR Courtland Sutton, RB Melvin Gordon, QB Teddy Bridgewater
Bust – RB Javonte Williams
Giants
Trust – RB Saquon Barkley
If You Must – WR Kenny Golladay, WR Sterling Shepard, QB Daniel Jones
Bust – TE Evan Engram, WR Kadarius Toney
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Bears
Trust – RB David Montgomery, WR Allen Robinson
If You Must – WR Darnell Mooney
Bust – QB Andy Dalton
Rams
Trust – QB Matthew Stafford, WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp
If You Must – RB Darrell Henderson, TE Tyler Higbee
Bust – RB Sony Michel
Monday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Ravens
Trust – QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews
Bust – WR Marquise Brown, Any current RB
Raiders
Trust – TE Darren Waller
If You Must – RB Josh Jacobs, QB Derek Carr
Bust – RB Kenyan Drake, WR Bryan Edwards, WR Henry Ruggs
