All NFL Game Prop Picks for the Week 13 bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 11/26/2024.
Greetings and welcome to the Week 13 NFL Props, Bests Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We had another very solid week with the article in Week 12 going 2-1 and maintaining the winning record in this article for over a month now. Unfortunately, the accompanying podcast was a dumpster fire at 4-7, my second losing week of the season. It happens, there were a ton of upsets and unexpected results last week and Vegas always wins in the end. We’ll get back up on the horse and see if we can recover nicely in Week 13. Let’s get into it!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions; they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper.” Set a limit and stick to it. For help with problem gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hot Thanksgiving NFL Sunday Prop Picks And Best Bets!
The bet: Texans -6.5 alt line, +111 NFL Sunday Prop Picks
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Parlay round robin with other bets or use an alt line of your own choosing, Texans -9.5 is +165.
The rationale: Narratives can be important to the betting world and we sure have one here. Houston just lost a close game to a bad division rival last week and has an opportunity to right the ship against an even worse one this week. To ensure they win the division this is the kind of game they have to win and win big. Jacksonville is an inferior opponent when compared to Houston in almost every meaningful statistical category. Their season is over and all that remains is to play spoiler. I don’t think Houston will let that happen after that embarrassing loss last week against Tennessee.
These two teams are miles apart
The Jaguars are one of the worst offenses in the league. Anyone with shares of Etienne, Gabe Davis, or Engram knows this all too well already. They are the third worst in yards per game offensively, within the worst third of the league for rushing offense, same for passing offense. They are also the worst team in the league defensively in allowing yards per game. Jacksonville is now the worst pass defense in the league and within the worst third of the league for rushing defense. They have a negative eight turnover differential whereas Houston has a positive nine. Jacksonville will struggle to produce yards on offense and will turn it over, that’s not ideal for them so far.
The injury bug has moved on from Houston
Beyond that this Houston defense is top ten for overall defense, yards per game allowed, same for passing yards allowed. They are within the top third of the league for rushing yards allowed defensively as well. They turn over the opponent and protect the ball themselves as mentioned above. And they are now the second-best team in the league for sacking the quarterback. Offensively they are light years better than Jacksonville, either middle of the pack or within the top third of the league for passing, rushing, and overall offense. They’ve gotten Will Anderson back from injury and Nico Collins as well. Jacksonville may be starting Mac Jones again and are shredded with injury on both sides of the ball.
We bet based on what should happen, not what will happen
On paper, this isn’t close at all. The only factor that could jam us up is that this is another divisional matchup. You really never know when it’s a divisional game, as evidenced by Tennessee blasting Houston last week in another “blood bath” where Houston was favored by almost double digits. Anything can happen on any given Sunday but this looks about as good as it can on paper for Houston to bounce back this week and in a big way.
The bet: Commanders -6.5, -101 NFL Sunday Prop Picks
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Parlay round robin with other bets or use an alt line of your own choosing, Commanders -9.5 is +146.
The rationale: Washington is in a slide and showing signs of distress with this recent losing streak but gets a break this week in the form of a bad Tennessee team that has used up their allotment of wins for the month already. The Commanders have lost a couple of close games recently but are still an exponentially better team than Tennessee. They come home this week and have a great opportunity to get back into the wild card race in the NFC against an opponent that has nothing to play for. They’ll take advantage of this and right the ship in a big way in front of a friendly crowd in Washington.
This is still a good Washington team
Washington may be on a losing streak but they’re still a top-ten team in offensive production, yards per game. They are a top-five team for rushing offense and among the middle of the pack for passing offense. They have a positive three-turnover differential and sack the quarterback within the top third of the league. Their opponent has the second-worst turnover differential in the league at negative twelve. Tennessee is within the worst third of the league for overall offense, the same for passing offense, and just among the middle of the pack for rushing offense (the one thing they do fairly well).
Not allowing yards means nothing if you are allowing points
The Tennessee defense is pretty good when it comes to allowing yards but they also allow 26.4 points per game which is the 6th worst ranking in the league. So while they may limit yardage they are not limiting points, and that’s what really matters. They are also within the worst third of the league for sacking the quarterback. That inability to apply pressure will give Jayden Daniels some extra time in the pocket to carve up this Tennessee defense.
This is as good as it gets for Washington
This is by no means set in stone but the clear difference in the rankings between these two teams and my confidence in Dan Quinn to get this figured out is pointing me in this direction. Let’s hope Washington takes advantage of this ideal setup for them to get back into the mix for the postseason and win handily over a Tennessee team that is already thinking about next year.
The bet: Bucs -6.5, -105 NFL Sunday Prop Picks
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Parlay round robin with other bets or use an alt line of your own choosing, Bucs -9.5 is +139.
The rationale: While this is a divisional matchup and those are always tricky, we’ve got a great chance for Tampa Bay to win another easier matchup against an inferior opponent. Coming off of the blowout of New York and getting healthy at the right time, this Tampa Bay team should win their second straight this week. Mike Evans was able to return to the lineup without issue last week and this Tampa Bay defense got some much-needed help with the return of Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum, their starting cornerbacks. And while Carolina looked great against Kansas City last week it will be a much different story in Week 13.
Baker should have all kinds of time
Tampa Bay is a top-ten team in overall offense, and yards per game, same for passing offense and rushing offense. They are a balanced offense and have a neutral (zero) turnover differential. Carolina is negative five in that department so we can likely count on Tampa Bay winning the turnover battle. Tampa Bay is also within the top third of the league for sacking the quarterback. Carolina is the second-worst team in the league in this ranking. Baker Mayfield will have more time in the pocket than usual this week to carve up this Carolina secondary. They also should have about four more minutes of offensive possession if the respective time of possession rankings hold in Week 13.
A complete and total mismatch
Carolina is the second-worst team in the league for offensive production and yards per game. They are also second worst in passing offense and within the worst third of the league for rushing offense. They are the fourth-worst team in offensive points per game. Defensively they are the worst team in the league for allowing offensive production, points per game. The Panthers are the third-worst team in allowing offensive yards per game. They are within the worst third of the league for pass defense and dead last in the league at rush defense. Carolina allows North of 160 yards per game on the ground. This Tampa Bay rushing attack that is top ten overall will be in a great setup this week.
Any given Sunday
Once again, this all lines up great for Tampa Bay and not well at all for Carolina. We’ve had this exact conversation before. Sometimes it goes as it should, and sometimes it doesn’t. Especially with divisional matchups. All we have control over is what we see before kickoff. And what I’m seeing is a huge mismatch and a likely blowout win for Tampa Bay this week. We’ll make our bets with this in mind and hope the gambling Gods deliver us this result. Good luck this week and Happy Thanksgiving!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish.
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