“It’s the Hottest NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
Playoffs? You wanna talk about the playoffs! Yes, I sure do! Wild Card weekend is here! We went 3-1 last week, for the THIRD week in a row, and are looking to ride the hot hand on the winning side this week. It’s playoffs, teams are going to pull out all the strings for their studs to show up. Or, the defenses will do all they can to limit their studs! Let’s take a look at our best NFL Wild Card player props for offense!
Odds Recorded On 1/10/2025 Via DraftKings
Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 Receptions @ -138 (Chargers)
Wild card weekend is a dramatically different ball game when compared to NFL Week 18 odds. Week 18 is long gone and a the NFL Playoff season begins. During the last week of the regular season, you could not find a reasonable line on Ladd McConkey receptions.
Without further a duo, the first bet on our list of NFL Wild Card props focuses on a rookie wide receiver. I know what you’re thinking. It’s hard to trust rookies when they hit this big moment in the playoffs. Normally, I would agree with you. However, this isn’t a rookie quarterback. In fact, Ladd McConkey has a veteran quarterback throwing to him. He also has a veteran coach. Ladd McConkey’s over 5.5 receptions feels too easy.
It’s no secret that McConkey has been the best weapon for the Chargers. As a rookie, he finished top-12 in fantasy football and has been an absolute playmaker for them. He’s averaging 5.1 catches per game, 71.8 yards, and seven targets. I realize betting him to have over 5.5 receptions when he averages seven targets feels risky, but let’s take a deeper look at the recent numbers.
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While his average may seem low for the bet we’re taking, we have to focus on the more recent games. McConkey started the year with six straight games under 5.5 receptions. However, in the last seven games, he’s averaging 6.4 receptions per game. Obviously, Herbert has decided he can trust him. Now you can trust him too to cash our bets!
Mark Andrews 50+ Receiving Yards @ +110 (Ravens)
Three weeks in a row we’ve gone 3-1. What can get is to the 4-0? I’m going to try and throw an alt-line in our NFL Wild Card props. I think it’s just what we need to get us past the hump of 3-1 and on to cashing a full card. For our alt-line, it was easy for me to target a specific player. That player is Mark Andrews.
Taking Andrews to have 50+ receiving yards is a system play. Zay Flowers is out so my guess is Lamar Jackson targets who he feels most comfortable with. Andrews and Jackson have been together long enough that their chemistry is top-notch, despite Andrews starting the season just a little bit slower.
Just like McConkey though, it’s not about how the season started. Instead, we look at how the season finished. Andrews has had two games in a row where he’s gone over 50 yards. While he hasn’t gone over 50 against Pittsburgh this year, in both those games Lamar had Zay to throw to.
The Steelers’ defense is 22nd in yards allowed to tight ends and Mark Andrews is about to eat. I like playing the ladder on his line as well. I don’t mind playing 50+ yards (+110), 60+ yards (+180), 70+ yards (+280) and even a small amount on 80+ yards (+420).
Jalen McMillan Over 53.5 Receiving Yards @ -114 (Bucs)
I went back and forth on how to incorporate this one into my NFL Wild Card props. Let me walk through what I’m thinking though. This is more of a fade of Mike Evans‘s numbers. Evans faces off against Marshon Lattimore, a player who was his long-time divisional rival Lattimore, who was on the Saints. These two despise each other. These two have heated on-field battles.
However, it’s tough for me because I’m a huge Mike Evans fan. I think this guy could show up in a big way for Baker. Still, looking at the data, when he plays Lattimore, usually it’s a good time to fade him.
Maybe Lattimore has taken a step back. He’s also coming back from a hamstring injury, which could hinder his play. I really like Mike Evans under 76.5 receiving yards since Lattimore hasn’t allowed Evans to exceed 76.5 receiving yards since 2018.
At the end of the day though, I just couldn’t bring myself to fade Mike Evans in my betting card. Therefore, I flipped it. If Evans doesn’t succeed against Lattimore like we think could be possible, who benefits? Rookie Jalen McMillan. His line is set at 53.5 receiving yards and I love the over. Evans matchup aside, McMillan has gone over 53.5 receiving yards in four of the last five games. He’ll be depended on either way as Baker will look to sling the ball against this Commanders’ defense.
Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns @ +142 (Broncos)
Let me lead my last selection on the NFL Wild Card props card by saying, I don’t think the Broncos have a chance in this game. However, I don’t expect them to get blown out and fold over either. I expect they’ll play from behind most of the game, which will force Bo Nix to throw the ball. Therefore, I love Bo Nix over 1.5 passing touchdowns, especially because you’re getting it at +142.
Nix has been sensational and a pleasant surprise in his rookie year. He’s thrown two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games to close the season out. That includes games against tougher defenses such as the Chiefs, Bengals, Colts, and Chargers. Therefore, getting him at +142 feels like a misprice. Maybe the books know what they’re talking about, but my money is on Bo.
The Bills have had an excellent season and I think they continue rolling through the playoffs. However, their defense is 25th in passing touchdowns allowed. All we need is Nix to have a first-half passing touchdown at some point. After that, I feel like the second-half will gift us with a garbage-time touchdown as the Bills just play safe with their lead.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1545
Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 Receptions (-138)
Mark Andrews 50+ Receiving Yards (Alt Line) +110
Jalen McMillan Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+142)
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
Don’t forget to check out our other great Fantasy Football and NFL Betting content before you go! Thanks for reading my NFL Wild Card Weekend Offense Player Props article!
