“Sack The BIG Plus Money HAIL MARY Week 12 NFL Prop Bets – Only for the Deepest DieHard NFL Defensive fans!”
We’re back again with this week’s BIG Plus Money Week 12 NFL Prop Bets And HOT Hail Mary Parlay! And yes, last week stunk. But that’s ok, we went modest as we always do with these Deep Hail Mary Big Plus Money Bets and Parlays! So, we’re ready to try it again this week and shoot for the moon while we have fun with the possibility of beating Vegas big time!
This week, we’re diving into the top matchups and a few of the players we’ve won with before this season. And no. it doesn’t include Preston Smith or Gervon Dexter this time! So let’s get to the point and see what Draftkings And Fanduel have for us this weekend…
Odds Recorded On 11/16/2024 Via DraftKings Week 12 NFL Prop Bets
Warning, These Are Deep Plus Money Makers And Not For The Faint Of Heart. Just a reminder, theres a reason the Paraly and Odds are on the nice plus money Best Bets.
Calais Campbell Over 0.25 Sacks (+125) – NEP @ MIA
So Campell is one we managed to hit with last week, and theres no reason not to dip back into the well here. But for those of you who might not recall what’s been mentioned, so here’s an update. Over the last five games, and no matter the matchup strength. Campbell has recorded 3 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 2.0 sacks, 21 total tackles (17 solo, 4 assisted), 5 tackles for loss, and 2 quarterback hits. Including the two sacks in the last two games where the matchups were in his favor for a sack. Are we worried in this case for getting his third in a row, nope not this time.
He and fellow interior stud lineman Zach Sieler are running on all cylinders as a team and this time around the games are in Miami. And if you’re looking back and only seeing the 2 QB hits that Campell had last go around in New England, keep those in mind, they were quarterback hits, or missed sacks, so to speak. And of course “if” DraftKings man up and listed Sieler at some point, or he’s available on FanDuel (etc.), he’s just as great an anchor as Campell is, if not better.
Campell’s maintained an elite level of play all season, and currently sitting on the following PFF grades. Keep in mind, anything near the 80 mark is hitting elite status if not flat-out elite depending on the position. Overall: 82.7 – Run Defense: 78.1 – Pass Rush: 73.0.
Emmanuel Ogbah Over 0.25 Sacks (+145)
Campell may be the anchor again, but theres a deeper pivot if you are feeling really lucky, so to speak. And it was just back when they played New England, in New England, we hit with DE/DT Emmanuel Ogbah. Although he’s just an on-par player (PFF again), we had to go with our gut and added him in a second Parlay I placed that we’ll mention at the end. And we’re just shooting for the bigger payouts, that’s what it boils down to.
What We Like About The Patriots Matchup
Number one, again it’s in Miami this time around. Another, according to our overall the Patriots are sitting at least top 5 in allowing production to the interior defensive tackle. And since taking over as the starter, Drake Maye has been sacked 17 times in 7 games, which is slightly over, but a solid 2 per contest. And looking at those teams they’ve played, like the Jets, Titans, and Rams. It’s not hard to make the call, at this point and time, Miami is the best interior line that Maye has faced to this point, in my opinion, and by the grades. One last note, last time, New England’s QB was Jacoby Brissett. And he was only sacked twice by Miami, but “hit” 7 times according to PFR in 60 snaps. And that still shows that Miami was getting after the QB, they just didn’t quite hit home that game.
So, give me Campbell for another sack this week, and make this three in a row in a contest you know the Dolphins want to show up in this time. And consider the other two pivots if you feel like you want more options. It’s rare to have such a strong top matchup versus the higher-end completion, take advantage. But be modest about it. This is still a Hail Mary Parlay, that’s not changed.
Kobie Turner Over 0.25 Sacks (+170) – PHI @ LAR
We don’t recall placing a bet with Turner this year, however, we need to break it up somewhere this week. And at his +170 we’re all in versus the Eagles who have been sitting top 10 all year in that overall production category to defensive tackles. The Rams’ young defensive line has started to Jive and it’s a tough call to say if Jarred Verse is the anchor or if it’s Turner. But whichever it is, the entire D-Line is getting the job done. However, if we’re looking at some of the others, I’d stick to possibly DE/OLB Byron Young or an even longer shot, the rookie DT Braden Fiske. But, back to Turner or Verse, let’s get to the numbers.
Turner: Over the last six games, he recorded 3 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 4.0 sacks, 34 total tackles (20 solo, 14 assisted), 6 tackles for loss, and 7 quarterback hits. And currently graded, Overall – 73.0, Run Defense – 76.0, Pass Rush – 62.6. Don’t laugh or shy away from the 62.6 pass rush grade, that’s still on par. And as we said, this unit jiving together adds upside, hence, he’s had 2 sacks in the last 3 games. Plus at least one tackle for a loss in the last four, with five QB hits in the last three. So yeah, Turner has some momentum going that I want a piece of this week.
Jared Verse Over 0.25 Sacks (+120)
Or again, maybe you prefer what Vegas thinks is more likely to happen, and roll with Verse. With him, he’s been producing all season overall, but especially the last four games. And over the last four games, he recorded 1 pass defended, 1 forced fumble, 3.5 sacks, 16 total tackles (8 solo, 8 assisted), 5 tackles for loss, and 5 quarterback hits. His grades are 86.5, 85.5, and 82.0. Any questions there? And kinda surprised he’s at plus-money anything considering the film this guy has put out the last few games.
The Matchup versus The Eagles…
As we mentioned the Eagles are around a top-5 DT matchup, however, they are in the lower third in allowing it off the edge. Hence we answered our question as to why Verse is sitting on plus-money. However, those elite-like grades and momentum balance that out for us. And that’s got a little more of an advantage playing at home. Now back to the Eagles. Jalen Hurts has been sacked 28 times (top 10) in 10 games. So that’s at least nearly 3 sacks per contest. And the nail in the coffin to place these bets. The Eagles have had 5 road games, and here’s how those sacks went.
- November 10, 2024, @ DAL: 5 sacks
- October 27, 2024, @ CIN: 0 sacks
- October 20, 2024, @ NYG: 4 sacks
- September 29, 2024, @ TAM: 6 sacks
- September 22, 2024, @ NOR: 4 sacks
I think we can all agree, the only real tough defensive line unit listed there (this year) has to be the Giants. The rest, are all well below par if not ranked in the bottom 5 in production, like Tamp Bay. And not to be brutal, but they all stink this year, all but the Giants. So yeah, give me Turner for the bigger hit, but just throw a dart and the odds are that any Rams starter on the line could very well slip up and get a sack, or two for that matter.
Dante Fowler Jr. Over 0.25 Sacks (+180) – DAL @ WAS
Each time we’ve wanted to dip into the well, the numbers didn’t jive with what Fowlers accomplished. And now is a great time to remind everyone. The defensive line’s bets come out way slower than the offensive players. So timing has also played a factor for me to get one with him in there for these articles. However, back to Fowler. The veterans having a hell of a bounce-back season, how big, let’s establish the numbers.
Over the season, he recorded 4 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 8.5 sacks, 25 total tackles (16 solo, 9 assisted), 10 tackles for loss, and 9 quarterback hits. Since week 3, when he really became a starter, Fowlers has not gone two games in a row without a sack, in 9 games. And low and behold, he didn’t get one last week. So, as tendencies go, that’s also right on par to make this bet. However, the grades aren’t as strong. Overall – 61.3, Run Defense – 51.4, Pass Rush – 61.9.
So that’s just on par in pass rush, but that’s okay. He’s a pass-rush specialist and it’s all the other numbers like tackles and such that bring his overall grade down. The Commanders also play Dallas at home, and that’s always a little something extra to add in any case. Home field, nothing like it for motivation and pride! Especially when you know you can beat your biggest rival on your home turf.
The Matchup versus the Dallas on paper…
If you haven’t heard, Dallas is stuck with Rush Cooper at QB and the teams are pretty irrelevant across the board at 3-7. The offensive line is graded to be ranked in the mid to late 20s. Oh, let’s see, on the season they have also given up a grand total of 29. If it was one QB would put him in the top 5 (tied) mark overall for the season. And in the last three games, he’s been sacked 6 times, 5 last game versus Houston, and 1 versus the Eagles the week before. Plus he’s been hit 6 times in the same time span.
Cooper’s PFF grades? Well, I wouldn’t bring it up normally because most NFL starters aren’t this poor. But he’s Overall – 43.3, Passing – 50.3, and Rushing- 25.5. And not to keep hounding away games, but both his last contests where the 6 sacks and 4 of his 6 QB hits happened, all on the road. So, Fowler has sacks against better teams and QBs, and with such a poor outlook for Dallas. We’ll take the Commander’s number one pass rusher at home for the sack to finish off this Hil Mary parlay. And when you see my final two combo parlays, you’ll see my confidence is running high on Fowler despite not quite grading his way into being what I call the anchor in these bets.
My Current Week 12 NFL Bets, or Parlays placed so far.
1st Hail Mary 3 Parlay Slip – @ +1601
- Calais Campbell Over 0.25 Sacks (+125) – NE Patriots @ MIA Dolphins
- Kobie Turner Over 0.25 Sacks (+170) – PHI Eagles @ LA Rams
- Dante Fowler Jr. Over 0.25 Sacks (+180) – DAL Cowboys @ WAS Commanders
2nd Hail Mary 3 Parlay Slip – @ +1409
- Jared Verse Over 0.25 Sacks (+120) – PHI Eagles @ LA Rams
- Emmanuel Ogbah Over 0.25 Sacks (+145) – NE Patriots @ MIA Dolphins
- Dante Fowler Jr. Over 0.25 Sacks (+180) – DAL Cowboys @ WAS Commanders
Both are as great All-Combinations or 2-pick Round-Robin Hail Mary as it gets this week! Or Mix and Match!
Don’t forget, that moderation is key to enjoying these…
DEEP Defensive Week 12 NFL Prop Bets!
Thank you for joining me, take care, and we’ll see you all again next week!
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