“It’s Johny The Greek’s Top NFL Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Prop Bets Parlay Picks!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 12 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We had another excellent week last week with a 2-1 record in the article and a truly wonderful 9-3 in the accompanying podcast. We’ve had a winning record in both items for the last three weeks in a row now. We’ll continue to target these trends, stats, and weaknesses that have been profitable for us this entire season (Colts rush defense I’m talking about you). With six teams on bye this week we may have limited options overall but we’ll find some good options for us in Week 12. Let’s get into it!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for the Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 11/20/2024.
The bet: Lions -6.5 alt line, -142 Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better price): Use the Vegas spread or an alt line of your own choosing, Lions at -9.5 or even -13.5 are realistic options this week. They’re just not options I’ll be pursuing for this article since this is a results-based business and I want to get this correct more than anything else.
The rationale: Detroit has been steamrolling inferior opponents all season long. 52-6 over Jacksonville, 52-14 over Tennessee, 42-29 over Seattle, 47-9 over Dallas. This team does NOT play down to its competition and if a bad team comes to Detroit they get absolutely blasted without remorse. Same deal when they’re on the road, that massacre of Dallas was in Jerry’s world. Despite Anthony Richardson looking much better last week I believe this Vegas line is an overreaction on their part and not realistic. We should be in for another blood bath and we’ll be there to take advantage of this line if and when that occurs.
Detroit will face one of the worst defenses they’ve seen all season
Let’s start with the Indy defense, which will have the tall task of trying to slow down this Detroit offense that is third overall across the league in yards per game at 394.7 YPG. Indy is currently the 5th worst defense in the league, yards per game, and is the 7th worst in pass defense and 5th worst in rush defense, YPG. They allow 22.7 points per game defensively and have allowed horrendous offenses such as Jacksonville and the Jets to score North of 28 points on them. They are negative one in the turnover differential while Detroit is positive nine, the third-best ranking overall across the league. Indy will turn it over, Detroit will not. Things are already looking bleak and we haven’t even mentioned the Detroit offense yet.
Detroit is on pace for a historic season offensively
Offensively, Detroit is the third-best team in yards per game at 394.7 YPG. They are the 6th best passing attack in the league and the 3rd best-rushing attack across the league. They score the most points per game in the league at 33.6 PPG. Against this suspect Indy rush defense they’ll also likely improve on their 11th overall across the league time of possession ranking. Indy is the second-worst team across the league in offensive time of possession. So not only will Indy turn it over more than Detroit but if the rankings hold Detroit will control the ball offensively for about four more minutes than Indianapolis. That’s another drive plus right there just in time of possession. The game will be indoors where that Detroit offense flourishes and they appear to be firing on all cylinders as a team after that dismantling of Jacksonville last week.
One good week does not make a career or a quarterback
And finally, while Anthony Richardson did look exponentially better last week we can’t dismiss what we’ve seen from him this season. We look at the entire body of work not just the most recent work, and most of that work isn’t great. Richardson averages 9.8 completed passes per game. That is a real statistic. This Indianapolis team is beyond one-dimensional and it’s a glaring weakness. If they get behind they can’t pass their way back into the game. If they even just get behind on yardage for first downs you can’t take them seriously as a passing threat on third down. Defensive game planning against a team like this that can’t complete passes is much easier than usual. And beyond that insanely low number of completed passes per game, there’s also the 7 interceptions in six games for Richardson. That’s an average of at least one interception per game.
What was Vegas thinking with this line?
None of this lines up well for Indy. It all lines up great for Detroit. Who knows, maybe Vegas knows something we don’t. But when I saw this as essentially a touchdown spread my jaw dropped, this feels like a two or three-touchdown win for Detroit easily. Even with that gut feeling we’re still just tweaking the Vegas spread so in case Vegas was correct we’re still in this bet and Detroit just needs to win by a touchdown. But as laid out above, I think it will be much much worse than that for the Colts this week. We’ll see what happens! Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
The bet: Chiefs -9.5, -142 Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better price): Use the Vegas spread or an alt line of your own choosing, the Chiefs -13.5 is in play this week after losing their perfect season last week. They face a VASTLY inferior opponent compared to them this week. I need to play it safe to ensure a certain level of accuracy for the article and podcast, however, in my own bets, I’ll very likely have some Chiefs -13.5 and other alt lines that lean towards a blowout for the Lions, Bucs, and others this week.
I think we all know about this one
The rationale: This one is pretty straightforward and odds are you don’t need me to mention it. This Kansas City team is a Super Bowl favorite and just lost a close game to Buffalo and their perfect season along with it. They are hungry for blood and get one of, if not the, worst teams in the league this week. Home or away, away, in this case, doesn’t matter here one bit. There is such a vast difference in talent level, experience, and goals between these two teams that we should be in for a total blowout and anything else would be a shock to the entire league and the nation itself.
Function versus dysfunction
Their opponent this week does not have a multiple Super Bowl-winning quarterback under center or a dominant defense. What they have is the worst offense in the league in yards per game (280.7 YPG) and a dysfunctional organization that has stunted the development of their franchise quarterback. They’re also the second-worst team across the league in passing yards and only middle of the pack when it comes to rushing offense, mostly due to a superhuman effort by Chubba Hubbard this year.
If you have the ball they can’t score
They are at negative five for the turnover differential while Kansas City is, shockingly, also negative five. I shouldn’t have mentioned it! Seriously though, Kansas City can overcome turnovers, but Carolina cannot. Carolina is also the third-worst team in the league for offensive time of possession while Kansas City is the fifth-best team in this category. If the rankings hold then Kansas City will control the ball for more than five more minutes offensively this week compared to Carolina. None of that is great if you’re a Panthers fan. If they don’t have the ball they can’t score.
KC is getting healthy, but Carolina is still missing pieces
On the flip side, we have a Chiefs offense that is middle of the pack overall (YPG) but is within the top ten for passing yards and middle of the pack for rushing. They’re getting Isaiah Pacheco back possibly this week and are one of the least injured teams in the league, certainly, they have fewer injury issues than Carolina. The Panthers are missing several key defensive pieces including Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson plus their cornerback corps is in flux. That’s always a sign of a bad secondary, and that rings true in this case as Carolina is the 9th worst team in the league against the pass, something that Kansas City does very well themselves with their top ten ranking.
This one is beyond obvious
All of this is just fluff though, the real truth here is that Mahomes is aiming for another Super Bowl and Buffalo knocked them off track last week. They’ll take this opportunity to get things back pointed in the right direction against a team that won’t be sniffing the Super Bowl any time soon. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a blowout.
We can’t know the future, only predict it based on the past
With all that said we’ve still hedged our bet here a bit and backed off the Vegas spread by a point so we only need a touchdown plus a field goal win to clear our alt-line spread. It’s a nice mix of “likely to happen” with a decent price and there’s nothing saying you can’t lean into this one with a -13.5 alt line or crazier. On paper this is the most obvious blood bath I’ve seen all season, now we see if the football Gods shall bring it to pass.
The bet: Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5 alt line, -103 Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better price): This is a better price than the Vegas spread of -6, which makes no sense, they’ll need to win by a touchdown regardless and we’d get pushed or lose the bet at exactly six points so we’ll take the extra half point and the better price here. Bucs -9.5 or even -13.5 are in play this week against a Giants team rolling out Tommy Devito. You can also parlay round-robin these three bets to get a better price overall and still lose one of these three games and break even or profit. Regular parlay is fine too but with parlay round robin you don’t need to be perfect to still profit.
The rationale: After enduring several close losses to solid teams, Tampa Bay gets a cupcake Giants team with a backup quarterback under center this week and Mike Evans back in the lineup as a cherry on top. They’ll stop their four-game losing streak dead in its tracks this week and take advantage of the recent losses that Atlanta has suffered to climb back into the race for the NFC South division crown.
Tampa Bay has been OK without Evans, they’ll be even better now
Even without Evans and Godwin the past month or so this Tampa Bay team has managed to maintain their offensive excellence with games of 31,26,24, and 20 points against legitimate defenses such as San Francisco and Kansas City. They are still within the top ten for passing yards per game and have simply shifted their targets from their talented wide receivers to their equally talented tight end and running backs. They’re a balanced offense as they’re also within the top ten across the league for rushing offense (YPG) and are the 5th best team in points per game. They’ve been just fine without Evans offensively and his return this week will add another dimension to this already excellent unit.
A great defense can only hold out for so long
If you’re looking for the opposite of everything I just laid out let me present the Giants offensive rankings and tendencies. They are the worst team in the league for points per game at just 15.6 PPG. within the worst third of the league for passing offense and among the middle of the pack for rushing offense. They have a negative six turnover differential, Tampa is at exactly zero (neutral), so we can expect the Bucs to win the turnover battle.
Tampa may run it down their throats
Beyond that, the best unit on this Giants team is their defense and they’ve been suffering due to the incredible amount of three-and-outs and turnovers their offense subjects them to. They are the 4th worst team against the rush and are just among the middle of the pack for points per game. This defense is still loaded with talent but if the offense keeps turning it over or punting it’s only a matter of time before they’re gassed each week and the flood wall breaks.
Tommy Cutlets isn’t the answer
New York is making moves, they’re going back to Devito (purely for financial reasons) and they could get Kavon Thibodeaux back this week as well. That doesn’t move the needle for me though. They know their season is over and will still try and play spoiler but this Bucs team still has something to play for and is getting one of their most important players back at the most crucial time. I think they take advantage of this matchup and vault themselves right back into the hunt for the NFC South title. We’ll see what the football Gods have in store for us but on paper, they should be able to do this for us in this ideal setup they’ve got in Week 12. Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Week 10 NFL Prop Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus gambling channel on YouTube. And catch my MONEYLINE for more prop picks. Please visit IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs! Week 12 DraftKings And Fanduel Picks!
