“It’s the Top NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
NFL Week 10 is here and we’re looking to win some cash and for my first IDP+ article, I’m hoping to help you win some cash. There are several juicy matchups this weekend. We can look at what defenses are underperforming against certain positions, and target our offensive players. Let’s break down the top NFL Week 10 player prop bets for this weekend.
So let’s get to the point and see what Draftkings And Fanduel have for us this weekend…
Odds Recorded On 11/07/2024 Via DraftKings
Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards @ +100 (Vikings)
Starting last year, Justin Jefferson proved that he was a bit quarterback-proof. Meaning, he didn’t need Kirk Cousins throwing to him to succeed. This year Jefferson has continued that trend and dominated opposing defenses. For my first pick on the NFL Week 10 player prop bets, I’m bypassing his over/under 95.5 at -115. Instead, we’re heading right for the 100+ yards which is at +100.
Jefferson faces the Jaguars, who play the second-most man coverage in the NFL. Justin Jefferson is currently averaging a league-high yards per route run against man coverage. Sam Darnold also targets him 42% of the time against man coverage. Due to the Jaguars’ poor coverage and Jefferson’s ability to excel against this coverage, I think he goes over 100 yards while the Vikings win by a large amount.
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Maybe it makes you nervous that a pass-catcher hasn’t put up over 100 yards against the Jaguars since Week 5 against the Colts when Alex Pierce went for 134. However, they haven’t faced many offenses that are humming along like the Vikings are. Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson should match up well against this defense.
With the Jaguars missing their quarterback Trevor Lawrence, their offense may also have trouble staying on the field. That means more opportunities and more time for Justin Jefferson to exceed 100 yards.
Tyrone Tracy Over 74.5 Rushing Yards @ -114 (Giants)
Devin Singletary went down with an injury back in Week 4. His snap share percentage had already started falling to Tyrone Tracy. Tracy has stepped in and held the majority of the snap shares, even after Singletary returned. Two weeks ago against the Steelers, he carried the ball 20 times for 145 yards. Another favorite pick of mine this week in the top NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets is Tracy over 74.5 rushing yards.
Tracy is running at a very efficient rate. Since taking over in Week 5, he’s averaged 15.4 carries per game. That includes 14 carries per game in the games since Singletary has returned. With those additional carries since Week 5, Tracy has averaged 5.06 yards per carry. Hard to argue with the Giants for keeping him as the lead back with those numbers.
One of the reasons I love this Week 10 prop bet is because it’s a nice early morning sweat as they play the 9:30 (ET) morning game in Germany. The other reason I love this prop bet is because they play against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers let Alvin Kamara run for 155 yards against them. Can Tracy be considered as good as Kamara? Not yet. However, with a rushing line half of what Kamara ran for, I feel confident in it.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns @ +116 (Lions)
Jared Goff started this season a little bit slow. He had only one touchdown pass and three interceptions through the first two games. However, he’s poured it on since then, averaging a little over two touchdown passes a game in the last six games. That includes three against a Titans’ defense that has played quarterbacks pretty tough.
However, the next bet on my top NFL Week 10 player prop bets is Jared Goff to throw over 1.5 touchdown passes. Everything seems to be clicking for the Lions, and as much as they let David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs run the ball in, they’re throwing as well. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been his go-to target, but he now gets back Jameson Williams, who missed two games due to a suspension.
Laporta has also started slowly stepping up for Goff, scoring two touchdowns in the last four games. The Lions now face the Texans, who have struggled on defense, especially as of late. They just got torched by Aaron Rodgers and the Jets for 211 yards and three touchdowns. Prior to that, they allowed Richardson to throw for a touchdown. Goff and the Lions’ offense is far superior to Richardson and the Colts.
Three weeks ago they also let Jordan Love throw for three touchdowns. Allowing three touchdowns to two of the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced shows how Jared Goff and this potent Lions’ offense should be able to have a lot of success.
George Kittle Over 56.5 Receiving Yards @ -115 (49ers)
While I’m going to talk about George Kittle here, I’m going to throw in a little bonus bet that isn’t available yet. It would be one of my top NFL Week 10 player prop bets, however, the books haven’t offered it yet. That bet is to smash the over on Cade Otton‘s receiving yards and receptions. Since Godwin and Evans have been hurt, Otton has been Baker Mayfield‘s go-to. He’s had double-digit targets and at least 77 yards in the last three games.
However, since he’s not offered yet we’ll look at the other side of that same game. The Bucs just allowed Travis Kelce 14 catches and 100 yards. With Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, Kittle has been a key component in the offense. In the last four games, he hasn’t had a single game under 56.5 yards.
It feels like the books are holding him to a little lower standard due to Christian McCaffery potentially being back. However, I don’t think that’s going to change his volume too much. Yes, CMC will get some of the target share. However, the Bucs are vulnerable in the middle, which means Kittle should be able to feast out of the tight end spot. Don’t overthink this one. Kittle over 56.5 yards is also a smash spot.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1327
Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards @ +100
Tyrone Tracy Over 74.5 Rushing Yards @ -114
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns @ +116
George Kittle Over 56.5 Receiving Yards @ -115
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
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