“The HOTTEST Week 9 NFL Prop Bets And Parlay Picks with the One And Only, Johny The Greek!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 9 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
I’m coming off of a disaster of a week, just 1-2 in this article and 5-8 in the podcast. It happens, Vegas always wins in the end. I’ll continue to pump these out since at the minimum this article and the accompanying podcast can serve as “idea generators” for the readers. Big picture we’re still doing fine, this is the first losing week in the last month and it was bound to happen sooner or later.
Don’t bet the mortgage, always set a limit, and if this is anything other than “fun” for you then it’s time to step away from the phone and go outside for a bit. Even the “professional” pickers, the Trent whatever guy with the “whales” and others, get crushed by Vegas every now and then. At least I didn’t try and wrap everyone up in a crypto scam on top of stinking up the joint last week.
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for Week 9 NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 10/30/2024.
The bet: Minnesota Vikings -5 (-110)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt-line to go Vikings -6.5 (+114) or higher.
The rationale: The Vikings are a very good team, we’ve seen that clearly so far this season. Unfortunately for them, they’ve had a bit of a rough patch with losses to the Lions and Rams in back-to-back weeks. Things are looking up for this NFC North contender with Indianapolis coming to their house this week and bringing with them an absolutely horrendous defense. If the doctor was to order a medication to get Minnesota out of the two-game slide they’re in currently it would be for them to play the team with the 5th worst overall defense across the league that also happens to be dead last in time of possession as well.
Flacco is back! But is it enough for Indy?
The only real good news for the Colts this week is they’ve given up on the Anthony Richardson experiment for now and have decided to roll out Joe Flacco this week. However, I don’t think that will be enough to beat this Vikings team that is a balanced offense loaded with talent and their ferocious defense that is +5 in the turnover differential (Colts are only +1) and is 5th overall for total team sacks so far this season. Minnesota is also the third-best team across the league for rushing defense only allowing 83 yards per game, rushing offense also happens to be a rather large part of the ideal Indianapolis game script each week so that’s not great for them overall.
Sometimes the numbers don’t add up
What seems strange but really isn’t upon further review is how mediocre some of the Minnesota rankings are for a team that is 5-2 overall and just a game out of first place in their division. They’re just the middle of the pack for passing and rushing offense per game and are also just the middle of the pack for total defensive yards allowed per game. That doesn’t make sense when we look at the end result of the vast majority of their games this season.
But when we dig deeper and see that two of their games were total blowouts that included starters resting for significant periods of time, we can see where the rankings slipped a bit due to this “garbage time” production allowed by backups. Beyond that, they’ve also been in shootouts against the Packers, Lions, and Rams. Back-and-forth affairs aren’t kind to the defensive rankings, and their balanced offensive approach hasn’t allowed them to “stand out” in any individual offensive rankings either.
More of a gut feeling, but Minnesota should bounce back this week
I would instead ask you to use the “eye test.” Anyone who’s watched this team this season is well aware that they can pound the rock with Aaron Jones and can air it out to Jefferson or Addison any time they need to. They should also be getting Hockenson back this week as he’s been activated off the PUP and all signs point towards him playing in Week 9. The defense may allow yards and points but they also sack the quarterback a metric ton and get turnovers consistently. The same can’t be said for this Indianapolis defense that is the 5th worst overall in total defense (YPG), within the worst third of the league for pass defense, and the third worst in the league for rushing defense allowing 151 yards per game on the ground.
Minnesota has weapons to spare
If it’s not Aaron Jones carving through this terrible Indy rush defense then it will be Justin Jefferson over the top against the suspect Colts pass defense. And while Flacco may be more experienced and composed overall, the chances are good he’ll be running for his life this week against this stellar Minnesota pass rush.
The eyes of the nation will be on Minnesota this week
Despite some murky rankings and the recent losses for this Vikings team, I would say most signs (if not all signs) point towards a bounce-back win this week against an inferior opponent at home and in front of the nation on Sunday night football. We never really know, any given Sunday and all that, but the eye test tells us that these are two teams that are light years apart.
The bet: Washington Commanders moneyline (-180)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas spread, Commanders -3.5 (-108) or an alt-line of your choosing. Or you can parlay round-robin this and other “bad” prices together to get a good price at the end and still be able to lose one or more of those bets (if you throw enough of them into the round-robin) and end up even or ahead of the game still.
The rationale: After barely beating this Giants team way back in Week 2 we get a rematch in Week 9. What has happened to these two teams since then has them light years apart as they prepare for the rematch. One team, Washington, just gave us the play of the decade in beating an excellent Chicago team and almost beating a Super Bowl contender in Baltimore. The other team, New York, has lost its last three games in a row and is now without their best running back among other injury concerns. The Giants have struggled to produce offense and keep their defense healthy and that’s a bad combination against this red-hot Commanders squad.
Two teams headed in opposite directions
Washington is the third-best rushing team in the league, the 10th-best passing team in the league, and ranked third overall for offensive yards per game. They score an average of 29.5 points per game and routinely blow out their competition. Jayden Daniels is the truth and he’s got the locker room believing in not only a wild card bid but also the division title. Defensively they are among the middle of the pack in allowing yards per game but are stout against the pass, 6th overall, and allowing fewer than 187 yards per game through the air. They are only among the worst third of the league for allowing rushing yards but New York is missing Tyrone Tracy this week with a concussion in all likelihood. And we’ve already seen that Singletary is a significant downgrade from Tracy.
If they don’t score we can’t lose
The Giants are the second-worst team across the entire league in offensive points per game at only 14.6 per week. They are the seventh-worst team in offensive yards per game, among the worst third of the league for passing yards per game, and the same for rushing yards per game. New York has a negative three turnover differential whereas Washington is plus four. And while New York may sack the quarterback a ton, Jayden Daniels is one of the harder players to track down and sack (16th overall). New York is also middle of the pack for yards per game allowed defensively and is particularly bad at stopping the run. They allow North of 140 yards per game on the ground and Washington does love to pound the rock.
Will you choose the Ferrari or the Hyundai?
Washington has a better time of possession ranking, a better offense, a more consistent defense, and a quarterback they can build their franchise around. New York has Danny Dimes and some nice pieces on offense that they can’t properly utilize because they’ve got Danny Dimes. This was a close matchup in Week 2, I highly doubt it will be this time around. Washington has improved significantly and has their eyes on a bigger prize while New York is just playing out the string. It is still a divisional game so anything could happen, but on paper, these two aren’t close at all and this should be an easy Commanders victory in Week 9.
The bet: Falcons moneyline (-142)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas spread, Atlanta -2.5 (-112) or an alt-line of your choosing.
The rationale: I’ve been picking on Dallas all season long and it’s mostly worked out for us. Last week Dallas did just enough to injure Jordan Mason to screw up that bet and cover our alt-line by half a point, but they still lost and the weaknesses we’ve been discussing were still on full display for all to see. San Francisco ran the ball on them for 223 yards and possessed the ball offensively for seven more minutes than Dallas. Dak threw some picks, Dallas rushed for only 56 yards, and in the end, it was the same story as always for the Cowboys. The problems we’ve been discussing in regard to Dallas all season long were still there and eventually led to that loss against the 49ers last week.
Bijan should have a huge week
This week they get an Atlanta team that is hot and possesses exactly what they need to beat Dallas, a great run game. The Falcons are rushing for over 120 yards per game and are in a great position for more this week. This Dallas rush defense allows North of 154 yards per game on the ground. That is the second-worst in the entire league. With Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence missing the past few games and injuries in the cornerback corps their pass defense is starting to look just as bad. They’re allowing 218 plus yards per game in the air which lands them among the worst third of the league for this ranking. None of that is great against Cousins, Pitts, Bijan, London, and company.
One-dimensional offense = recipe for disaster
Dallas offensively is still one-dimensional, and that continues to be another issue for them. They are still the worst rushing attack offensively in the league at only 74 yards per game on the ground. Since they’re so one-dimensional the opposing defense has a much easier time game planning for them. And when it’s all said and done we get our usual Dak interceptions and a Dallas loss. Dallas has a negative eight turnover differential and it’s getting worse each week. Atlanta has a zero turnover differential and has been much better defensively since that shaky start to the season. They are at home against a one-dimensional team that will completely abandon the run the second they get into a negative game script. Matt Judon and company will be feasting well this week in the sack department.
The Dallas defense we all know and love is mostly on IR
Even if this thing goes badly for Atlanta they can just dial everything back and pound the rock with Bijan against this second-worst overall Dallas rush defense. And I don’t think they’ll need to do that at all. I expect them to light up the scoreboard against this Dallas defense that could still be missing Parsons this week and is shredded with injury to the cornerback corps as well. Eric Kendricks is still hobbled, Lawrence is gone for the season, and Sam Williams is too, there is no help coming to Dallas any time soon.
I could be way off here, the “do or die” nature of this setup for Dallas may force them into playing well this week but I’m just not seeing it. The rich get richer and Atlanta stacks another win as they aim for a division title and Dallas continues to swirl the toilet in Week 9.
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish.
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