“Sack The Hottest NFL Week 4 IDP Props with DEFENSIVE Expert Gary Davenport”
If there’s one thing you can predict with absolute certainty, it’s that the NFL will be unpredictable.
It has been the case from a team perspective. No one is shocked that the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are undefeated. But the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers also being without a loss at this point in the season is an eyebrow-raiser.
The Tennessee Titans being winless? Not a stunner—especially given the rate with which quarterback Will Levis is turning the ball over. But Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals were supposed to be a playoff contender—not a winless squad coming off a home loss to the Washington Commanders.
Those surprises extend to individual players, as well. Three weeks into the season, the league’s leading tackler is Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross—just like exactly zero people expected. Detroit Lions edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson leading the league in sacks isn’t a stunner. But the player pacing the AFC (Will McDonald IV of the New York Jets) wasn’t even expected to start this year.
It just goes to show you that no matter how much we think we know entering the season, on a weekly basis we find out how much we do not. But that doesn’t mean we can’t gain more knowledge. Learn new things as the season progresses. And apply that knowledge when trying to identify IDP props that will hit in Week 4.
Time to add some units to the pile. Because everyone loves a big fat pile of units.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top NFL Week 4 IDP Props
Danielle Hunter (EDGE, HOU) Over .75 Sacks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-105)
Hunter joined the Texans in free agency after registering 16.5 sacks last season with the Minnesota Vikings. Hunter’s first three games with the Texans have been relatively quiet—just 1.5 sacks so far. But the 29-year-old told reporters that he’s less concerned with individual stats than the Houston defense having success as a unit.
As a defensive line, we take pride in rushing as a unit,” Hunter said. “One play, Will could get the sack, the next play an interior [defensive] lineman could get the sack, it’s all about rushing as a unit, rushing very unselfish.”
Hunter may be saying all the right things, but rest assured—he wants to get back into the sack column in the worst way. In Week 4, that’s exactly what is going to happen. The winless Jaguars have allowed 12 sacks through three games this season—tied for fourth-most in the league.
Jared Verse (EDGE, LAR) Over .25 Sacks vs. Chicago Bears (+120)
The 19th overall pick in this year’s draft out of Florida State, Verse has been solid for the Rams over his first three NFL games—averaging five tackles a game and adding a sack. Leading into this week’s trip to Chicago, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus told reporters that he has been impressed by what he has seen from the youngster on tape.
“Verse obviously, high pick, high energy, really good run stuffer, hard to block in the run game,” he said. “Their front stands out to me the most. The two edge rushers create some different looks. They’re an odd structure team, they’re getting some odd looks and different pressures, and they operate out of the shell at certain times. And that’s what I see overall.”
Among rookies this year, only Verse’s teammate Braden Fiske has more pressures this year than the 11 that Verse has accumulated. This week Verse and the Rams face a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams who has been dropped more times in 2024 (13) than any signal-caller in the NFC.
T.J. Watt (EDGE, PIT) Over .75 Sacks vs. Indianapolis Colts (-154)
In news that should surprise exactly zero people, T.J. Watt is pretty good at the whole “sacking the quarterback” thing. As Jarrett Bailey wrote for Behind the Steel Curtain, Pittsburgh quarterback Justin Fields admitted he didn’t truly understand how dominant Watt is until him watching him play against the Atlanta Falcons in the season opener.
“We played Atlanta Week 1 – I’ve never seen a player take over the game like T.J. did,” Fields said. “His pre-game speech, bro – I don’t know if he’s done that before… it was lit. I felt like I was in a movie. It was crazy, I know I didn’t expect that when he threw his helmet down to yell… I’ve never seen that so I’m just like ‘I’m ready to go.”
As of this writing, the only prop bets live at DraftKings for Sunday’s slate are sack props—so apparently this week’s column is going to be all about the pass-rushers. Given that sacks are the focus in Week 4, it makes sense to target the best edge-rusher in the NFL—especially since he has logged a sack in all three games this season.
Travon Walker (EDGE, JAX) Under .25 sacks vs. Houston Texans (-145)
There have been some major defensive changes this year in Jacksonville under coordinator Ryan Nielsen—including edge-rusher Travon Walker playing more in a three-point stance. The third-year pro and former No. 1 overall pick told reporters that he thinks that change could spur the best season of his career.
“Man, the defense that we’re in now, I feel like it fits me great,” Walker said. “We’re playing straight forward, and I feel like with me playing with my hand in the dirt, I feel a lot more explosive. And I feel like I can just play ball now. It’s been great working with Ryan. He’s one of those guys that he always gives the why on why we’re doing something, so that makes it a little easier on us.”
Not much has gone right for the Jaguars this year, and after getting to Tua Tagovailoa twice in the opener against the Miami Dolphins Walker hasn’t registered a sack since. That dry spell is going to hit three games this week in Houston—C.J. Stroud has been dropped 12 times this season, but the Texans enter this game in a bad mood after getting drilled by the Minnesota Vikings a week ago.
Odafe Oweh (EDGE, BAL) Under .25 Sacks vs. Buffalo Bills (-215)
Yes, the juice (or lack thereof) on this call sucks. But it’s still easy units.
Good band name.
In four seasons, Oweh has never really lived up to his draft slot—his career-high in sacks for a season is five. But that didn’t stop the Ravens from picking up Oweh’s fifth-year option, and while speaking to reporters Ravens pass-rushing coach Chuck Smith said he believes this is the season that Oweh breaks out.
“He’s going to be an A-list rusher, and I’m just excited for him,” Smith said. “He’s buying in as he always has, he’s a good dude, and no one deserves to finally reach that pinnacle [more] than Odafe, and I think he’s going to go 100% to reach that goal.”
Oweh does already have 2.5 sacks this season, but those all came in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders. Last week against Dallas, Oweh had no sacks or tackles and managed just one quarterback hit. This week’s stat line will be similarly paltry—Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been sacked just twice all season long.
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Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is a 15-year veteran IDP and NFL writer and a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks for more bad advice.
