“Johny The Greek’s Best Week 4 NFL Game Bets will maximize your winning potential every time!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 4 edition of “best bets”, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We went 2-1 last week as Derrick Henry easily cleared his rushing line of 66.5 yards and the Packers won in a plus-money upset with a backup quarterback under center once again. Denver surprised us (and everyone) with the upset of Tampa Bay. That stunning result was the coup de grace for our IDP Plus survivor league and it is now done after only three weeks. Welcome to parity in the NFL.
I am 6-3 overall for the entire season to this point and hopefully have some nice options for you this week! Let’s get into it!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All NFL Week 4 NFL Game picks, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 9/25/24. Week 4 NFL Game Bets
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
The bet: Steelers moneyline (-125)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but better payout): Use an alt-line to make it Steelers -6.5 (+191), even the normal spread doesn’t move the needle much for this matchup, which Vegas thinks will be close. I’d probably just stay with the moneyline on this one.
The rationale: This one feels pretty straightforward, which means it will probably be dead wrong. But that’s how it goes. We make our decisions with the information we have available ahead of time and then live with our decisions. If we could predict the future this wouldn’t be any fun and we’d be in Wall Street not the DraftKings lobby.
On paper these are two teams going in completely different directions, the Steelers are undefeated and see an opportunity to gain an even bigger lead over Baltimore, Cincy and Cleveland for the division title against a hobbled and clearly flustered Indianapolis team. The Colts were not a great defense to begin with and since the start of the season, they’ve lost their best run-stuffer, DeForest Buckner, and one of their starting cornerbacks, Juju Brents. Their other full-time starting corner, Kenny Moore, left last week’s game with a hip injury and is questionable for this week and has not practiced so far at the time of writing (9/25/24).
Swiss Cheese is not just delicious, but also a metaphor for the Indianapolis run defense
The Colts are the second-worst team in the entire league at defending the run, with Dallas being the worst overall (not shocking at all). They allow 179 yards per game on the ground and that happens to be the entire Pittsburgh game plan every week. They are the 12th overall team in the league for rushing offense and are averaging 130 yards per game on the ground. Najee Harris, who was thought to be questionable and iffy for this week’s game as recently as a couple of days ago, practiced in full today and is healthy for this week.
The Steeler’s game plan has been to dominate time of possession by running the ball effectively, which they have and look to be able to do rather easily against this porous Indianapolis rushing defense. The Steelers are the number two overall team in the league for the time of possession right now and this is a monster advantage for them as it enables their excellent defense to be well-rested and ready to come out swinging for every Colts possession.
Pittsburgh, where opposing offenses come to die
Speaking of their defense, it’s currently ranked first overall in yards per game, third overall in rushing yards per game, fifth overall for passing yards per game, and first overall in points per game allowed. They may be missing Alex Highsmith for this game but Nate Herbig, his direct replacement, has a 91.7 pass rush grade from PFF and recorded two sacks and a forced fumble last week in his first significant game action as the Highsmith replacement. So it’s not like they’re going from a Porsche to a Hyundai, it’s more like a Porsche to a Corvette. They’ll be fine.
The writing is on the wall all over the place for this matchup, if the Colts get into a negative game script at any point we damned sure know they won’t be able to pass their way out of it. They are the 24th overall passing attack and Anthony Richardson hasn’t been North of 17 completions in any game yet this season. He may be completing the occasional “wow” level pass but he can’t dink and dunk and certainly can’t be relied upon to help the Colts crawl out of any hole they get into against the best defense in the entire league. On paper the story tells itself, we’ll see if reality lines up for us this Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The bet: Texans -6.5 (-108)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but better payout): Use an alt line like Texans -9.5 (+137), I feel pretty good about the normal Vegas spread for this one myself. I can see this game getting out of hand and it being a Houston blowout, but we’re going to play it safe on this end of things. No team wants to go 0-4 and this is a divisional game, the Jaguars are going to go out swinging we can count on that.
The rationale: The Jaguars are in a world of hurt right now, currently sitting at 0-3 and as the 27th overall offense in the league, they desperately need a win to salvage their quickly sinking season. Unfortunately for them, they get the Texans this week who are fresh off of a loss themselves and are lightyears more talented across the board. Let’s compare shall we?
Things are not sunny in Jacksonville
The Jaguars, as previously mentioned, are the 27th overall offense in the league. They are also 27th overall for passing offense, middle of the pack for rushing offense, and 30th overall (also known as third worst in the entire league) for points per game. Their passing offense has been so bad that I’ve seen multiple leagues across multiple platforms where you can find Gabe Davis or Christian Kirk sitting on waivers like a bad chicken sandwich from your local gas station. It’s just as bad on defense where they are 26th overall in yards per game, 30th overall for passing yards allowed per game (that’s not great against this Houston passing attack), and 28th overall in points per game allowed.
They are the third-worst team in the entire league for the time of possession, which also means they are going three and out constantly and never giving their injury-riddled defense time to rest between possessions. Foye Oluokun, their all-pro middle linebacker, green dot signal caller, and captain of their defense, is in danger of being on the short-term IR, and Tyson Campbell, their all-pro cornerback is already on IR. They can’t get their offense going and their defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed right now. On top of all of that, they’re going to Houston for this game to play a team with playoff aspirations that are fresh off an embarrassing loss of their own and is hungry for blood.
An ideal situation to bounce back for the Texans
This Houston team has exactly the kind of offense that Jacksonville doesn’t want to see right now without their best cornerback or green dot signal caller. The Texans are the eighth overall passing attack in the league and absolutely loaded with talent across the board on both sides of the ball. Even without Joe Mixon, who hasn’t practiced yet this week, they’ve got more than enough firepower to score early and often on this shell of the once-potent Jacksonville defense. The Texans are also the fifth overall team for time of possession ranking this season. The Jaguars’ defense is already seriously undermanned, they’ll likely be gassed and tired by the third quarter with this in mind as well.
On paper, this looks like a slam dunk. Hopefully, it pans out for us. All of the positive factors are on the Houston side of this matchup and it will take a serious effort and a minor miracle for Jacksonville to overcome them and pull off the upset on the road against a superior opponent.
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New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
The bet: Niners alt-line -6.5 (-192) Week 4 NFL Game
How to improve those numbers (riskier but better payout): Use the normal spread, -10.5 (-108), or your own alt-line. This specific alt-line I chose is a balance between “The Niners should crush these guys” and “The last two games the Niners looked like warmed-over cat poop wrapped in dog poop wrapped in cat poop”. On paper, this should be a blowout, but we’ve had this discussion before (Cincy in Week 1, Tampa Bay in Week 2, shit happens).
The rationale: This is another “obvious” call for Week 4, and on paper, everything looks solid to back it up. The vibes match the information as my gut tells me that San Francisco is going to come out swinging and get an easy win because to do anything different would put an early nail in their coffin when it comes to the division, especially if Seattle wins on Monday night. They’ve simply got too much talent and too high of aspirations to not come out and dominate in this game.
Time of possession is the slow blade that penetrates the shield
Speaking of domination, the number one time-of-possession team in the NFL right now is the 49ers. They average 36 minutes per game for time of possession and, just like in the Houston game, are facing off against an undermanned and hobbled defense that can’t afford to stay on the field for extended periods. The Patriots are already down Ja’Whaun Bentley for the season, their excellent middle linebacker and defensive signal caller.
They lost Matt Judon in the offseason and have had to promote Raekwon McMillan of all players to a starting role, his overall PFF grade of 52.6 is “red” if you play All-22, which means bad basically. They’re scraping the bottom of the barrel at linebacker, and beyond a talented secondary with Christian Gonzalez and Kyle Dugger plus the emergence of Keion White at defensive end, there isn’t much to write home about for this team overall.
Jordan Mason is lined up to run all over the place in Week 4
San Francisco uses their excellent rushing attack, number 10 overall and averaging almost 140 yards per game on the ground, to control the clock and limit opposing offensive possessions. This also tires out the opposing defense and by the time the third and fourth quarter rolls around those two and three-yard rushing attempts turn into rushes of ten and twenty yards or splash play touchdowns. They will grind the Patriots all day long and eventually, New England will break.
And that’s just one side of this, the better side for New England if we’re being honest. The Patriots are the worst offense in the entire league. They are 32nd overall in yards per game, 31st in points per game, and dead last (32nd) again for passing yards per game. So if they fall behind at any point the odds are not good at all that they’ll be able to “pass their way back into it”.
Nick Bosa is licking his chops
Beyond that, their opponent happens to be one of the best defenses in the league. And while they’ve been exposed the last two games we need to remember that two games does not equal a real trend in the NFL. This defense has been solid as a rock for years now. If and when the Patriots fall behind in this one and become one-dimensional as they try to use their (worst in the league) passing attack to crawl back into it then they’ve just become target practice for Nick Bosa and this stellar 49ers pass rush.
Any given Sunday Week 4 NFL Game Bets
It could go South on us, it has already a few times this season, but we play the odds around here. We look at these matchups and think about what the “most likely” outcome is for each game. We are living in the alternate universe where Cincinnati lost to the Patriots in Week 1 and Tampa Bay lost to Denver last week, but I can assure you that in the majority of alternate timelines (if you believe in that sort of thing) those results went the way we predicted them to go. This is why we love this league, because on any given Sunday anything can happen. But for us, the degenerates, we use the information we have now to make our decisions for later and then we hope for the best. Let’s hope we go 3 for 3 this week and these work out for us.
Thanks for reading as always, good luck this week and let’s get that cash! Week 4 NFL Game Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus Moneyline channel on YouTube for “The IDP Plus Moneyline” show with Gary Van Dyke (The IDP Tipster) and yours truly where we cover our favorite bets each week of the season in a short audio format. Make sure you’re visiting IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs!
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