Start beating the sports books before the 2024 NFL season even kicks off with these NFC West Best Bets!
2024 NFC West Bets
We had real football LAST WEEK! Alright, it may just be the Hall of Fame game but it’s a start, right? NFL Kickoff is under 40 days away and it’s time to start our preparations. Not only is the offseason a great time for fantasy football, but it’s the perfect time to find value in the NFL West best bets markets. It’s time to put the projections to the test and put our money where our mouth is!
The NFL Futures Player Props Series marches on with the NFC West. Disclaimer: This article is NOT for the faint of heart. Odds in this article may exceed normal capacity. Brace yourselves.
This division features four teams with dynamic playmakers all over the field. It’s only right we come up with some dynamic props ourselves. I’ve got one best bet for each team for my four top prop bets for the NFC West.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyler Murray Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns +110
Let’s kick this NFC West player prop article off backing a guy looking to return to his pre-injury form. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is now in year two of his ACL recovery, and I think it’ll make a huge difference. Don’t just take my word for it, the research consistently shows it can typically take up to two years for players to feel “normal” in their movement again. Another year removed from a significant knee injury will allow Kyler to feel comfortable in the pocket again. I think this directly translates to him hitting the over on his passing TD prop.
Murray doesn’t only have health on his side, but he comes into the year with improved young targets. Second-year TE Trey McBride emerged as a rising star last season, leading the team in receiving by almost 300 yards as a rookie. Having a dominant big target in the red zone is going to pay dividends for Kyler and his stats this season. Also, with a lot go holes on their team, the Cardinals used the number four pick to draft arguably the best WR prospect we have seen in years. Marvin Harrison Jr. steps into the WR room and instantly improves the team’s passing attack. With 14 receiving TDs in each of the last two seasons at Ohio State, he is no stranger to finding the end zone.
Coming into this season fully healthy and with two ultra-talented young receivers, Kyler Murray has the potential to have a career year. The nice part is, we don’t need him to be Superman to hit this number. He hit this number in 2/3 years where he played the majority of the season.
Finally, not only do we need Kyler to put up points with his arm, but so do the Arizona Cardinals. This a team with a VERY suspect defense, with very few playmakers. They also just lost their second leading pass rusher, in BJ Ojulari, for the season with an ACL tear.
For all of these reasons, give me Kyler Murray OVER 21.5 Pass TDs +110.
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Geno Smith Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)
From backing one QB to fading another. My next best bet for the NFC West is taking the under on Geno Smith’s passing TDs. This really is a bet for things to stay par for the course. Geno Smith has played ten seasons in the NFL, just ONCE has he thrown over 20 touchdowns. Everything broke right in that 2022 season for Geno and the Seahawks, and I don’t see the stars aligning again.
This season also brings in a new regime for the Seattle Seahawks, both in the coaching department and the O-line. The Seahawks parted ways with two starting offensive linemen this offseason, with OT Abraham Lucas also currently recovering from offseason surgery. Seattle did bring in a couple of free agents to fill this void, but chemistry will have to be built quickly. Chemistry also needs to be built with the quarterback-offensive coordinator connection. New head coach Mike Macdonald went to the college ranks to bring in new OC Ryan Grubb. If Geno struggles to find that 2022 lightning in the bottle, there is no reason for this new coaching regime to remain loyal to him.
Whether through injury, a benching, or just plain poor performance, I am calling for Geno Smith UNDER 22.5 Pass TDs -135.
Cooper Kupp Lead NFL In Receiving Touchdowns +4500
This next bet falls squarely into the long-shot category. However, if you’re going to give me 45-1 for a guy to replicate a season he had only three years ago, I’m taking it.
Cooper Kupp has struggled with injury issues over the past two seasons. This is a fact. However, another fact is that when healthy, Cooper Kupp is one of the best receivers in the league.
Given the struggles with his hamstring last season and the emergence of Puka Nacua, the market is counting Kupp out. Despite all the success the young rookie WR had, he is not the same red zone target as his running mate. Despite playing in five more games, Nacua only scored ONE more receiving TD than Kupp last season.
With conscious improvements made on the O-line to protect Matthew Stafford and the threat of a running game, I see Kupp in the end zone A LOT this season. I’ll take the dart throw on Cooper Kupp to lead the NFL in Receiving TDs at +4500.
Deebo Samuel 5+ Rushing & 5+ Receiving Touchdowns +600
Deebo Samuel is an absolute touchdown machine. With the ball in his hands, Deebo turns into one of the hardest tackles in the NFL. He also has a coach in Kyle Shanahan who loves to get him involved in multiple ways. Betting on Samuel to find the end zone has been a profitable strategy so far in his career, and I’m not abandoning ship now.
The final NFC West player prop bet requires the 49ers WR to find the end zone at least five times both in the air and on the ground. For the majority of players in the NFL, this may seem like a daunting task. However, Deebo has accomplished this feat in two out of the past three seasons. With the threat of losing Brandon Aiyuk in the shadows, Samuel may be called upon even more in the red zone next season.
Relying on a player to score on the same team as Christian McCaffrey is always a risk. However, the nice price of this prop makes it a worthwhile investment for me. For my final bet, give me Deebo Samuel 5+ Rushing and 5+ Receiving TDs +600.
